Recent
Surveys
The trans-Atlantic interest rate divergence
The March 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the panel for the causes of the interest rate divergence between the US and Europe. A majority of the CfM-CEPR panel attributes the divergence of US and EU interest rates to the long-term differences in growth expectations and the natural rate of interest. Around a third of the panel attributes the gap to diverging inflation expectations and fiscal policies.
How will Trump’s economic policies affect the EU economy?
The January 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its panel on the impact of Trump’s tariff plans on the EU economy. A clear majority of the panel believes the effect of US tariffs on EU economic growth to be relatively small, reducing economic growth by less than 1 percentage point over the next four years. Most panellists believe that the EU’s best response to US tariffs would be a combination of retaliatory targeted tariffs, trade deals with non-US partners, and taxes or regulatory measures constraining US tech companies.
The Economic and Market Impact of the UK Budget
The November 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its panel about the impact of the UK Autumn Budget and the market reaction to the budget. The panel unanimously attributed the rise in medium-term interest rates in the runup to and the aftermath of the budget. Yet it was evenly split on what fraction of the rise in interest rates was due to the budget. Moreover, the vast majority of the panel believes that the rise in employer national insurance contributions will have small or no impact on UK economic growth in the upcoming five years.
Promoting and Taxing Investment in the UK Budget
The October 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its panel for their opinion on the policies expected in the upcoming UK Autumn Budget on October 30th. The members were asked about changes the UK’s fiscal rules that would allow debt to increase for the purpose of greater public investment. The panel was also asked whether increasing capital gains taxes is an effective way to raise revenues over the upcoming decade. Most panellists support changing fiscal rules to allow for increased public investment. The panel is ambivalent whether increasing capital gains taxes is an effective way to raise revenues with most being uncertain, some clearly disagreeing, some agreeing but with substantial caveats.
A National Wealth Fund for the UK
The September 2024 CfM survey investigated proposals to found a National Wealth Fund (NWF) in the UK. The panellists were asked whether they think that the NWF would be effective in increasing UK’s investment and economic growth. The panel was also asked whether they are concerned about the affordability of the NWF, given the current high levels of government debt. The results showed that most of the panellists were not confident in the NWF’s ability to boost growth. The panel was roughly equally split between those supporting and opposing the creation of a NWF, . However, even supporters of the NWF expressed low confidence in its impact and expressed many caveats. On the financing of the NWF, the panel expressed little concerns about the affordability of the NWF.
From Peace to Preparedness: Analysing Europe's Expanding Defense Expenditures
The July 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to outline the three most important economic policy challenges facing the incoming UK government. Generative AI was used to summarise and analyse their responses. Almost every panellist cites the UK’s poor economic growth, productivity and infrastructure as the most important challenge facing the incoming government. The poor state of public services; Brexit, immigration and trade-related issues; fiscal policy and public finances; and housing reform also mentioned as key challenges.
From Manifestos to Mandates: The UK Election in Focus
The June 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to outline the three most important economic policy challenges facing the incoming UK government. Generative AI was used to summarise and analyse their responses. Almost every panellist cites the UK’s poor economic growth, productivity and infrastructure as the most important challenge facing the incoming government. The poor state of public services; Brexit, immigration and trade-related issues; fiscal policy and public finances; and housing reform also mentioned as key challenges.