The latest thinking of UK macroeconomists

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

The January 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for the panel’s views on the significance of the recent falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies. While all recognise the considerable uncertainty in the world economy, more than two thirds do not fear that these events will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery. The main argument is that any negative effect due to lower foreign demand and market instability is compensated by the benefits of lower oil prices.

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects


What are the prospects for the Chinese economy and its international impact? Three quarters of the experts in the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) monthly survey believe that China’s annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is divided on whether the slowdown will have a significant impact on the UK economy.

ECB's quantitative easing


Will the risk-sharing arrangements within the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) programme reduce its effectiveness? According to the latest monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) reported in this column, our panel of experts are exactly evenly divided. The written responses suggest that this divergence reflects differences in views about the channels through which QE operates.