The latest thinking of UK macroeconomists

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

Summary

What are the prospects for the Chinese economy and its international impact? Three quarters of the experts in the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) monthly survey believe that China’s annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is divided on whether the slowdown will have a significant impact on the UK economy.

ECB's quantitative easing

Summary

Will the risk-sharing arrangements within the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) programme reduce its effectiveness? According to the latest monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) reported in this column, our panel of experts are exactly evenly divided. The written responses suggest that this divergence reflects differences in views about the channels through which QE operates.

Introduction

Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB)

Summary

Does monetary policy really face a zero lower bound or could policy rates be pushed materially below zero per cent? And would the benefits of reforms to achieve negative policy rates outweigh the costs? This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, suggests that there is no strong support for reforming the monetary system to allow policy rates to be set at negative levels.

Introduction