Akos Valentinyi's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Manchester

Voting history

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the world’s second largest economy slows down, it bound to have an effect on UK economic growth. However, much of this effect depend on how the slowdown comes about. If it happens slowly over time (no hard landing), then the impact may well be very small which does not require material change of UK monetary and fiscal policy. However, if there is hard landing for China, then it is more likely that economic policy in the UK has to react to it.

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