Andrew Mountford's picture
Affiliation: 
Royal Holloway
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
This question almost answers itself. If there is a sustained deflationary episode in Europe then this would be associated with low levels of demand and so would certainly affect UK exports and UK growth negatively.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Sustained deflationary episodes are rare and have occurred when monetary authorities have maintained a tight monetary policy during adverse economic conditions. Since the ECB is signalling strongly that it will pursue a loose monetary policy -see e.g. ECB press conference this week (08/05/14) - I think sustained deflation in Europe is unlikely but of course one cannot completely rule out a deflationary blip for a quarter or two.

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Again the framing of the question! But Yes I agree: if the data are to be believed - series IHXW - the trend growth rate of real GDP per capita doesn't seem to have been greatly affected in the past by recessions, exchange rate regimes, or changes in industrial structure, although again as Rogoff and Reinhart point out the long run implications of recessions associated with banking crises are not clear and will be policy dependent, hence again there must be uncertainty about this.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I have to say I am finding the "Framing" of the questions quite distracting. A part of me thinks I am taking part in a behavioral experiment. Is there a control group of economists that are asked the same questions but without the introduction?!!! Anyhow, pressing on regardless:- Yes I agree: if the data are to be believed - e.g. series IHXW - then the hypothesis that the UK economy returns to trend after recessions looks reasonable, although as Rogoff and Reinhart point out the long run implications of recessions associated with banking crises are not clear and I would also say, will be policy dependent. This together with Japan's recent experience following a banking crisis means there must be some uncertainty about the answer to this question.

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

First question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

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