Andrew Mountford's picture
Affiliation: 
Royal Holloway
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again I have no expert knowledge on chinese trade links but in general this question is asking whether the world economy is inherently stable or whether is it fragile and liable to move to a radically different equilibrium in response to, on the face of it, small changes of circumstances (shocks). I think analysis of recent and past financial crises shows that the paradigm with multiple equilibria and potentially very large multipliers with respect to financial shocks is a good one and so should an event such as this happen a strong policy response would be appropriate.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I'm no expert on China but from what I read China's growth resembles that of the Asian tigers as detailed by Young 1995 i.e. stemming from rapid growth of factors of production due to large investments in capital and human capital. At some point this will slow down when the balanced growth path is reached but as there are still over 30% of the chinese workforce still in agriculture (world bank) I think this point should be some way off. So absent a sustained world recession/ or domestic or international financial crisis - see question 2 - I would expect Chinese growth to be strong over the medium term

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Relative to what? To default?!!! To the current unsustainable repayment schedule?!! I'm not sure what you mean here.

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