Costas Milas's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Liverpool
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England

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Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
 
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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone

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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I am confident to some extent. Whatever academics or policy-makers say, it is difficult to evaluate the potential risks of a fallout between Greece and Eurozone's core. This is because, if a Grexit takes place, and if Greece, in sharp contrast to expectations, does better (in the medium term) outside the Euro, others might be tempted to follow. This will definitely undermine irreversibly the whole Euro project.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Spreads in other peripheral countries were under pressure in 2012 when the exposure of their banks to Greek debt was substantial. Since then, Greek debt has been restructured. Today, there is very little exposure of banks to Greek debt. Hence, a revival of Grexit talk will have much less (if any) impact beyond Greece. Indeed, despite the political uncertainty in Greece, and the prospect of a government led by SYRIZA, spreads in the remaining GIIPS (let alone Eurozone’s core) have hardly moved. What is the implication of all these? A new Greek government (led by SYRIZA) should not try to negotiate with the so-called Troika by playing the card of a Greek-domino effect. Doing so will probably make Greece “sleepwalk” towards Euro exit without a significant contagion effect.

2014 Autumn Statement

 

Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: Do you agree that the scale of this planned reduction in total managed expenditure is credible?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The IMF predicts the ratio to fall to 37.8% in 2019; this is notably higher than what the budget predicts. A big reduction in expenditure is arguably questionable especially in 2016-2017, when (a) borrowing costs might come under pressure and (b) GDP growth might be pushed back if a Brexit referendum drives us out of Europe.

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