Costas Milas's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Liverpool
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?

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Question 3: Voters chose to leave the EU for non-economic reasons.

Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
A. Non-economic reasons more important
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Voters were more than anything else interested in restricting net migration flows to the UK. Don't forget also that BREXIT leaders attacked economic ‘experts’ who overwhelmingly warned against the huge economic risks of BREXIT. Their (rather) odd argument was that economic ‘experts’ have to be wrong because…they did not predict the 2008-2009 financial crisis! With Brexit ON, I am...ecstatic to report that we will know pretty soon whether economists (including myself) are going to be wrong this time around...

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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I agree that we need to get better "training" on how to deliver our ideas in an accessible and non-technical manner.

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Yes, please see my answer to Question 2 above.

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
31-70%
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The day after a Brexit vote, David Cameron will have to step down at once. Indeed, Eurosceptic Tories would not ‘digest’ the paradox of Mr Cameron negotiating, in a credible manner, BREXIT when he has ‘passionately’ argued in favour of Remain. Whether transition to a new leadership proves smooth or turbulent remains to be seen. Bearing though in mind that Tory Eurosceptics have made substantial noise during the Brexit campaign, it is more likely than not that we will witness political instability. On the economics/financial front, credit rating agencies will respond by cutting our credit rating score. This will hardly be surprising as academic studies have shown that EU membership enjoys a ‘premium’ of as many as two notches. With voters ‘kissing goodbye’ to EU membership, this 'premium' will not hold any more. All of the above will (a) put upward pressure on our borrowing costs (and of course mortgage rates) even if the BoE decides (in a rather desperate move) to cut the policy rate down to zero and (b) trigger financial volatility which, together with rising political instability at the Tories headquarters, will take time to sort out…It is sad really: David Cameron warned voters against a Do-It-Yourself recessionary damage when, in fact, it will be a David It's You damage...

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