David Bell's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Stirling
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Direct effects limited due to relatively small UK exports to China, General excess supply and consequent global slowdown will have a more pervasive effect on UK economy, making it more difficult to correct imbalances (trade, budget) in UK economy.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
institutional impediments, sectoral and financial imbalances are likely to reduce China's sustainable rate of growth

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This follows from the previous answer

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is fanciful to expect that the market will ignore the allocation of risk.

Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB)

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Question 2: Do you agree that the benefits of reforming the monetary system to allow materially negative policy interest rates outweigh the possible costs?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again unclear whether negative interest rates would have a positve effect on aggregate demand. We have little understanding as to how this development would affect consumer expectations.

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