David Bell's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Stirling
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is fanciful to expect that the market will ignore the allocation of risk.

Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB)

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Question 2: Do you agree that the benefits of reforming the monetary system to allow materially negative policy interest rates outweigh the possible costs?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again unclear whether negative interest rates would have a positve effect on aggregate demand. We have little understanding as to how this development would affect consumer expectations.

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Question 1: Do you agree that it is feasible for the UK authorities to change the monetary system so that materially negative policy interest rates could be safely implemented? (In answering, you may wish to explain your reasons and define your view of 'material')

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
My response reflects my risk aversion and uncertainty as to how the public would respond to these relatively unconventional policy measures

The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity

Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Which party is making the right judgement call on the speed of deficit reduction? A prori, a difficult call but one that is likely to have significant effects on overall economic activity.

Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Really difficult period to assess. The austerity programme itself varied in intensity and employment has done spectacularly well given that the downturn in output exceeded all recorded previous instances.

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