Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Advanced economies such as the UK's have highly persistent growth rates. Politicians usually turn out to be mistaken when they think they have introduced radical reforms such that the economy can and will now grow faster, and there is no obvious reason to think that growth rates are less inertial on the downside.
Question 1
The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
A note of caution is that this greater than 3% output gap could not be closed overnight, but it is still a shortish term matter rather than a medium or long term one.
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
My view is that a ratio of around 40% (gross) would be an appropriate target, but it is important to say that this should be attained gradually over a period of 'normal times', and the target should not be used as an excuse for more austerity now.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?
Question 1
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
Question 1
The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)
First question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
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