David Cobham's picture
Affiliation: 
Heriot Watt University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
31-70%
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

The future role of (un)conventional unconventional monetary policy

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Question 2:  Do you agree that central banks should operationalise the use of these alternative tools of unconventional monetary policy for use either in the near term, or in the future, as economic conditions warrant?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Such tools might be useful - but, again, only if fiscal policy is not available.

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Question 1: Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Yes, QE could be useful and could be held in reserve for the future. But it is only really necessary, at least in most situations, if and when the use of fiscal policy has been ruled out - for example, by the disfunctionality of the political system as in the US, or by political ideology as in the UK and the Eurozone.

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