David Cobham's picture
Affiliation: 
Heriot Watt University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility

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Question 1: The Chancellor forecasts a cyclically adjusted fiscal surplus by 2017-18 and in cash terms by 2019-20. Do you agree that this planned path of fiscal consolidation is appropriate?

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Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
There is no economic justification for such consolidation. The Chancellor should either get himself some proper economic advisers and admit he has been wrong, or come clean about his political reasons.

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
A Chinese slowdown will certianly have adverse effects on UK growth - but the latter has plenty of its own problems, so the Chinese slowdown (or the eurozone crisis) cannot be used as an alibi for poor policy since 2010.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think a growth rate of a bit less, say 4-5%, is more likely. China will still hgrow faster than western 'advance' economies, but surely the heady days of 9-10% growth are now over.

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again, it depends on the circumstances.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It may or may not, depends on circumstances.

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