David Cobham's picture
Affiliation: 
Heriot Watt University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think a growth rate of a bit less, say 4-5%, is more likely. China will still hgrow faster than western 'advance' economies, but surely the heady days of 9-10% growth are now over.

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again, it depends on the circumstances.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It may or may not, depends on circumstances.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Current terms as discussed in the media seem not to include any debt relief, but maybe it will follow later. However, debt relief is what Greece (and the Eurozone) need. And we economists need to mount a stronger challenge to the misguided economic policy thinking of the German establishment.

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Question 2: Do you agree that Greece would be better off defaulting right now rather than signing to the agreement under consideration?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
If default without Grexit were feasible, that might be okay, but it seems unlikely that Germany and others would be willing to allow that (for political rather than economic reasons). In that case default presages exit and a deeper and longer recession.

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