David Miles's picture
Affiliation: 
Imperial College
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is not likely that waiting until it is clear that a change in rates is needed is optimal. Fortunately, rate changes can be reversed, which is one reason by why waiting is a mistake.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The real issue is what does "strong labour market" mean. Unless you give that concept some empirical content the proposition is empty. And it is very clear that assessing "strong" by reference to a some measure of unemployment is tricky when the nature of jobs has changed as has unionisation and the openness of economies to flows of goods, services and people.

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
More oversight may be warranted on grounds of reducing orgnaised crime rather than on financial stability grounds.

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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Bitcoin is probably too small to matter much - huge fluctuations in value will impact criminals, the gullible and the risk lovers.

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Make sure to save each question separately

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I suspect the direction of any effect is, net, negative i.e. a weakening housing market (falling house prices) probably does mean weaker spending and growth. I disagree with the word "significantly". A limited but widespread weakening of house prices - say falls of up to 5% - would probably not dent spending and GDP "significantly". In contrast meaningful rises in mortgage interest rates are quite a different (and more powerful) thing.

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