David Miles's picture
Affiliation: 
Imperial College
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Make sure to save each question separately

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I suspect the direction of any effect is, net, negative i.e. a weakening housing market (falling house prices) probably does mean weaker spending and growth. I disagree with the word "significantly". A limited but widespread weakening of house prices - say falls of up to 5% - would probably not dent spending and GDP "significantly". In contrast meaningful rises in mortgage interest rates are quite a different (and more powerful) thing.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The recent decline in average London house prices is very small and may well prove to be transitory. We have been here several times before in recent years - newspapers get very excited by even the smallest fall and start writing about meltdown coming across the UK and then within a few months are writing stories about London being on fire again. Its an asset price.....it should be hard to predict.

Global risks from rising debt and asset prices

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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
To a large extent this was its aim because in raising asset values and leverage it raised demand.

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Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Whether debt is a problem depends on who holds it and their ability to withstand shocks (to their income or asset values). Aggregate figures on debt tell you rather little about that. The agents who are still least able to withstand shocks, given their enormous leverage, are banks. .

Juncker's State of the Union Address

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Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
By "the euro" do we mean the euro as it is with all the current countries that adopt it? There may well be a subset for which leaving is optimal, and for the remainder "the euro" may well have benefits over free floating of al EU currencies.

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