David Miles's picture
Affiliation: 
Imperial College
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Global risks from rising debt and asset prices

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Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Whether debt is a problem depends on who holds it and their ability to withstand shocks (to their income or asset values). Aggregate figures on debt tell you rather little about that. The agents who are still least able to withstand shocks, given their enormous leverage, are banks. .

Juncker's State of the Union Address

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Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
By "the euro" do we mean the euro as it is with all the current countries that adopt it? There may well be a subset for which leaving is optimal, and for the remainder "the euro" may well have benefits over free floating of al EU currencies.

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Question 1; Do you agree that euro membership should be compulsory for all EU member states?

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Answer:
Strongly disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The benefits of the single market are substantial and can (and should) be available to countries who do not believe that they are likely to be part of an optimal single European currency area.

Wages and economic recoveries

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Question 2: Do you agree that the different behaviour of UK real wages relative to Eurozone wages during the Great Recession is in large part due to the UK having different labour market policies?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Employment growth has been greater in the UK than most other European countries - but labour productivity growth has been much worse. Whether overall welfare in the UK has been higher as a result of this mix is far from clear.

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Question 1: Do you agree that lower real wage growth was beneficial for employment levels during the Great Recession?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Employment levels have probably been helped by lower real wages - productivity has almost certainly been lower. Welfare might have been higher with somewhat higher real wages even if that meant somewhat lower employment - that depends on by how much labour productivity would have been boosted by greater incentives to improve output per worker hour.

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