David Miles's picture
Affiliation: 
Imperial College
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Neutral
Confidence level:
Confident

The future role of (un)conventional unconventional monetary policy

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Question 1: Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think in ordinary circumstances using variations in the policy rate (Bank Rate in the UK) is by far the most effective tool of monetary policy; buying and selling government bonds when financial markets are operating normally is not likely to have a very significant affect. (In those circumstances the conditions that Eggertson and Woodford assumed in a Brookings Paper of several years ago come close to being satisfied and mean that QE is then a weak tool).

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Question 2:  Do you agree that central banks should operationalise the use of these alternative tools of unconventional monetary policy for use either in the near term, or in the future, as economic conditions warrant?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the question is asking about helicopter drops I do not agree that they are likely to be a useful tool. "Printing money” under helicopter drops really means financing purchases of government bonds by creating reserves, which may well be interest bearing. Distributing newly printed bank notes in exchange for government debt would, in fact, almost immediately be turned back into reserves. If reserves pay interest - as they do now and as I think they should - then "printing money" is just financing government spending by the government borrowing at Bank Rate, something it can do anyway by issuing Treasury Bills.

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It seems likely that uncertainty and volatility will rise; of course that does not prove that having a referendum on Brexit is a bad thing.

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