Ethan Ilzetzki's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics

Voting history

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The output gap is not an exogenous object. Public policy could potentially affect whether the loss in output is permanent or temporary. My (very casual) conjecture would be that it is still not too late for public policy to prevent the loss of output being permanent. But short of such measures, the loss will eventually be permanent.

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