Ethan Ilzetzki's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics

Voting history

The future role of (un)conventional unconventional monetary policy

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Question 1: Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I would respond with the question "to what end?". I believe that unconventional monetary policy has the ability to affect asset prices and the slope of the yield curve. Continuing to use these tools when the central bank has its traditional tool--the short term rate--at its disposal means that the central bank would then have multiple policy instruments. Given that the Bank of England has a sole policy objective--an inflation target--it's not clear why it needs more than one instrument and this seems like unnecessary intervention in the workings of financial markets. To be persuaded that these tools should still be active in normal times, I'd want to understand why their proponents believe that they will increase the ability of the central bank to stabilise prices. Alternatively, I'd like to understand what secondary objectives these additional instruments would be targeting.

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that the new National Living Wage is likely to lead to significantly lower employment?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
No clear plans have been articulated as to the process through which the UK will exit the EU and what the UK's post-Brexit strategy. All pro-Brexit campaigners have stated that they would like to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU--a process that would take years. In the interim, access of UK firms to their largest trading partner will be in question and the role of the City as the main financial centre for Europe will also be at risk. It is hard to see how this would happen without significant financial and economic turbulence.

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I disagree partly because of the word "significant" in the question and partly because of the oil price part of the question. Low oil prices are a positive for the UK economy overall. If low prices are due to weak demand then they are an indicator of slow growth, but not primarily in the UK, and not a cause for the slow growth itself. The stock market wealth losses would be a drag on the UK economy, if they are persistent. It is hard to ascertain the magnitude of these effects at this point.

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