Ethan Ilzetzki's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics

Voting history

Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone

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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Forecasting spillovers of sovereign spreads is a nearly impossible task. But this is a significant risk that needs to be considered in contingency planning.

2014 Autumn Statement

 

Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The drop in tax revenues has been largely cyclical. Revenues are recovering to their pre-crisis levels (as a percent of GDP). Nevertheless, the lost revenues have left a debt burden that needs to be addressed in the long term. Deficit reduction should and will most likely involve some combination of (moderate) public spending cuts and moderate tax increases. But there I do no see a strong case for precipitous action on tax revenues.

Question 1: Do you agree that the scale of this planned reduction in total managed expenditure is credible?

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Government spending in the decades preceding the crisis hovered around 40% of GDP. Current levels of spending are entirely within historical averages. It is hard to see how public spending could be cut by an additional 35% without a wholesale change in the role of the state. It is hard to envision such a change.

Devolving Income Tax Powers within the UK

Question 2: Do you agree that that there is a clear economic case for establishing "English votes for English laws" with the same tax and spending powers as the Scottish Parliament?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Secular Stagnation

Question 2: Do you think that current structural and fiscal policies should place a considerably greater emphasis on pushing the natural rate into positive territory?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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