Fabien Postel-Vinay's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?

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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think it's a mix of all points, mainly A, C and D, largely for the reasons stated in my comment about question 1.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Setting up a "Royal College-type" institution that would clearly state the "official" views of the profession on various issues (insofar as such an "official view" can be articulated) might well be useful. However, while I broadly agree with Paul Johnson's comments, I believe that another key problem during the referendum debate had to to with the media through which economists tended to use to communicate their views. It seems to me that those mainly included articles and letters in newspapers such the FT, Guardian, Times and the like, or opinion pieces posted on various blogs. It seems to me that the audience that these media are likely to reach is very selected, and was already overwhelmingly in favor of remaining in the EU.

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
11-30%
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

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