Fabien Postel-Vinay's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
11-30%
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that the new National Living Wage is likely to lead to significantly lower employment?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In the short run, probably not. In the medium to long run, if the plan to raise it to 60% of the median wage is carried out, then yes. The magnitude of potential disemployment effects of the minimum wage are likely to vary with the level of the minimum wage, and likely to be higher at higher levels of the min wage.

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