Fabien Postel-Vinay's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Reaching an agreement seemed to be considered a prerequisite by some of Greece's creditors before any talks about debt relief could begin. Yet many consider that Greece is in urgent need of debt relief. Who knows what will happen now on that front?

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Question 2: Do you agree that Greece would be better off defaulting right now rather than signing to the agreement under consideration?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Given the amount of uncertainty about what would follow a Greek default, and given the possible repercussions on the Eurozone, I think trying to reach an agreement is the better idea for everyone. Defaulting won't terminate the difficult relationship between Greece and the Troika.

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Question 1:  

Do you agree that, on balance, the implementation of the agreement as outlined in media reports will have a non-trivial negative effect on Greek GDP?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This may be moot now, as it appears that the deal is not going ahead. Anyway, the contents of the Greek proposal - mostly raising VAT and corporate taxes, with a bit of reform of the pension system - mostly looks like a short-run patch to meet the demands of the Troika. If implemented, it is likely to impact GDP negatively in the short run. The longer run is difficult to predict.

Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB)

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Question 2: Do you agree that the benefits of reforming the monetary system to allow materially negative policy interest rates outweigh the possible costs?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England

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Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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