Fabrizio Coricelli's picture
Affiliation: 
Paris School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

The Future of Central Bank Independence

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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The risks of breakdown of the Eurozone will force the ECB to be less independent. However, beyond the issue of independence, credibility of ECB policies are undermined by the past several years of erratic policy and several commitments to do "whatever it takes." Future policies driven to achieve inflation objectives are likely to have low credibility. This will imply undesirable effects of policies irrespective of the degree of independence of the ECB.

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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The key issue for inflation dynamics in the next 48 months is not ECB independence but rather finding an effective monetary policy framework. The Great recession has shown that simple interest rate rules are not effective anchors for inflation (and inflation expectations). Acting on quantities and possibly in coordination with fiscal policy and debt management may be necessary to achieve inflation targets even if this implies de facto less independence. Nevertheless, I believe that the risks of higher inflation are generally underestimated. For the Eurozone inflationary pressures will also arise because of the continuing pressure for the depreciation of the euro.

German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that exceptionally loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank is no longer appropriate?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Lacking expansionary fiscal policy and effective solutions for bad loans in the periphery of the eurozone, loose monetary policy is the second best policy

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