Francesco Caselli's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Norman Sosnow Chair in Economics

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again this seems a very second order problem to me.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Maybe a tiny bit but it seems a very second order effect.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This is a contractionary deal and it is reasonable to suppose that it will further reduce Greece's medium term capacaity for debt service, so, yes, it will proably rediuce even further the amount of money the creditors will get back.

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Question 2: Do you agree that Greece would be better off defaulting right now rather than signing to the agreement under consideration?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It's very hard to predict what would happen if Greece defaulted on the IMF payment. The game of chicken may still be on, and Greece may still ultimately succeed in obtaining less insane terms for a new bailout. On the other hand the deal they are discussing seems certain to cause further increases in unemployment and poverty, so they should hold out.

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