Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?

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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
A. Non-economic reasons more important
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
one issue that in my opinion has been important is the one of sovereignty along with immigration that has in the public opinion point of view also non-economic aspects that might be of more relevance than economic ones. Regarding the economic reasons, it is hard to make claims about long-run economic effects of policy choices because institutional and structural changes can influence the economic performance. Also the global financial crisis has created scepticism on the ability of the economic profession to interpret what is going on.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In my opinion, in general it is difficult to have a unified view especially in the field of macroeconomics. I do believe that there is a difficulty in communicating with the public at large more than with policy-makers. introducing leadership could help but also credibility of communication matters. one important component of credibility is the extent to which various views are correct or not and this is difficult to verify ex-post.

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Neutral
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
nontrivial but ≤ 10%
Confidence level:
Not confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It seems to me that all depends on which model would be adopted in the post-Brexit scenario. For example if the UK were to seek to join the EEA adopting a model like Norway, the UK could continue to advantage of the passport system and would maintain existing regulation. Alternatively under a UK EU free trade agreement models the UK could regulate its own financial service sector.

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