Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

====================================================================

Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

====================================================================

Answer:
nontrivial but ≤ 10%
Confidence level:
Not confident

====================================================================

Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

====================================================================

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It seems to me that all depends on which model would be adopted in the post-Brexit scenario. For example if the UK were to seek to join the EEA adopting a model like Norway, the UK could continue to advantage of the passport system and would maintain existing regulation. Alternatively under a UK EU free trade agreement models the UK could regulate its own financial service sector.

The future role of (un)conventional unconventional monetary policy

====================================================================

Question 2:  Do you agree that central banks should operationalise the use of these alternative tools of unconventional monetary policy for use either in the near term, or in the future, as economic conditions warrant?

====================================================================

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagreee
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
There might be a scope for expanding tools but my impression is that they might less effective as the current situation of low growth and inflation persists. For example the current Japanese experience with negative rates raises questions on its effectiveness and might suggest that alternative policy tools should be adopted (i.e. fiscal policy).

====================================================================

Question 1: Do you agree that central banks should continue to use the unconventional tools of monetary policy deployed in response to the global financial crisis as part of monetary policy under normal economic conditions?

====================================================================

 

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
as long as these unconventional policies are useful in achieving Central Banks' target (i.e. inflation), they could be used even in normal times even though it is not clear to me to what extent in normal time there is more substitutability between conventional and unconventional monetary policy tools.

Brexit and financial market volatility

======================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

======================================================================

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Pages