Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone

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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Given the trajectory of Greek public debt, renegotiation of the bailout agreement seems to me a sensible option. The risk is to underestimate the financial consequences for the Euro of a unilateral decision of a country to exit the system. While the cost of this decision are higher from a Greek perspective, financial linkages among Eurozone countries could amplify its effect and lead to financial turmoil.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
There might be contagion coming from the outcome of the Greek election but one aspect to keep into account is what the European Central Bank will do at the meeting of the 22nd of January just before the outcome of the election. An aggressive QE program could limit the escalation in spreads.

2014 Autumn Statement

Question 1: Do you agree that the scale of this planned reduction in total managed expenditure is credible?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

 

Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
low growth in real income is a symptom of a fragile recovery and an increase in taxes could undermine the recovery

Secular Stagnation

Question 2: Do you think that current structural and fiscal policies should place a considerably greater emphasis on pushing the natural rate into positive territory?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Based on my comments in the previous question prompt policy intervention is important to avoid a cyclical downturn to become permanent. Fiscal stimulus that might take different forms at national levels financed via monetary expansion could be needed

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