Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Conditional on policy choices, I don't see why there has to be an adjustment to the long-term growth rate. I would think that a financial crisis has impact on the level but the growth rate would be influenced by different structural factors.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think it is hard to measure output gap following a crisis event. Crises event might imply permanent drop in the level of potential output and it might well be that the current output gap measured without taking into account nonlinear effects might be overestimated.

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

Second question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

First question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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