Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

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Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Given the regional distribution of the increase in house prices, it is not obvious that there is an excessive housing related risk. In my opinion another dimension to consider is the build-up of private debt since an excessive increase in house prices coupled with high private debt, would make the private sector vulnerable to shocks like interest rate increase. In this sense preventing this build up could be important in an environment in which nominal interest rate could increase later in the year.

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Question 2: When housing-related risk is deemed excessive from the viewpoint of financial stability, do you agree that the correct response is to deploy macro-prudential tools, leaving interest rates focused on the needs of inflation and aggregate real activity?

 
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
When there are two objectives (macroeconomic stabilization and financial stability), it is better to use different policy tools for different targets. Interest rate would be proper for macroeconomic stability while macro-prudential tools should address financial stability concerns. The problem is that we, as economist, know very little about the interaction of these policy tools and the extent to which macro-prudential regulations is effective. We still lack a framework to study and understand the interaction between macro and financial stability and the complementarities among different policy tools

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Conditional on policy choices, I don't see why there has to be an adjustment to the long-term growth rate. I would think that a financial crisis has impact on the level but the growth rate would be influenced by different structural factors.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think it is hard to measure output gap following a crisis event. Crises event might imply permanent drop in the level of potential output and it might well be that the current output gap measured without taking into account nonlinear effects might be overestimated.

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

Second question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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