Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Other than as an interim or transitional measure, an Independent Scotland needs to develop its own currency because a monetary union between the continuing UK and an independent Scotland would undermine the very notion of Independence. The example of the Euro Area is fairly clear as it has had to develop a fiscal compact and banking union, as well as a lender of last resort function for the whole Euro Area, in an attempt to deal with its recent existential crisis.

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Neither the continuing UK nor Scotland would be better off in the short run, as economic and financial risk sharing has evolved in a reasonably satisfactory way over time (in this case three centuries). The current set up will take time and resources to unpick and may also involve the creation of new risks if the new political and economic settlement is ill-founded or not robust.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is quite hard to work out what the rate of productivity growth will be over the longer run after the crisis and in the new financial worlds, so I will stick close to the very ong run UK average but there are many imponderables here.

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