Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Neither the continuing UK nor Scotland would be better off in the short run, as economic and financial risk sharing has evolved in a reasonably satisfactory way over time (in this case three centuries). The current set up will take time and resources to unpick and may also involve the creation of new risks if the new political and economic settlement is ill-founded or not robust.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is quite hard to work out what the rate of productivity growth will be over the longer run after the crisis and in the new financial worlds, so I will stick close to the very ong run UK average but there are many imponderables here.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Even though growth has been very low relative to the typical year to year numbers observed prior to the crisis, there has been loss of capacity since the start of the crisis and not yet sufficient re-building of that capacity by firms.

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