Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I like to think that QE was desperately required in order to prevent a deeper and longer crisis in the Euro Area. Without it, it seems to me that it was more likely that any one country might leave the Euro Area.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
It is the size of the central bank balance sheet and its composition, as well as the duration of the purchases, that mostly matters for the effectiveness of QE operations. The question of whether the ECB in Frankfurt or the NCBs dotted around the Euro Area hold the risk seems at best a second order issue.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Not sure I have seen the plans for any debt restructuring that would flow from this deal.

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Question 2: Do you agree that Greece would be better off defaulting right now rather than signing to the agreement under consideration?

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Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I have not seen any credible plans as to how the Greek economy would be run in a post-default, post-Euro regime. And doubt that the current incumbents would be best placed to run the economy in such a circumstance.

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Question 1:  

Do you agree that, on balance, the implementation of the agreement as outlined in media reports will have a non-trivial negative effect on Greek GDP?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The counterfactual of no agreement is likely to lead to even worse output in the short run with default and possible Euro exit. In the long run structural reforms are necessary and the debt levels are clearly too high both of which will bear down on output whatever happens.

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