Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A slowdown in Chinese growth will tend to reduce scope for UK exports to China but also may reduce pressure on scare commodities – so net-net I am not sure there will be a great effect one way or other.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Like Japan before it and other rapidly growing countries, because as countries approach the efficiency frontier it just gets harder to squeeze out higher levels of growth. In any case, significant institutional reform, especially of the financial sector is going to be required for the growth to be sustained and even then growth will stall.

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I like to think that QE was desperately required in order to prevent a deeper and longer crisis in the Euro Area. Without it, it seems to me that it was more likely that any one country might leave the Euro Area.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
It is the size of the central bank balance sheet and its composition, as well as the duration of the purchases, that mostly matters for the effectiveness of QE operations. The question of whether the ECB in Frankfurt or the NCBs dotted around the Euro Area hold the risk seems at best a second order issue.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Not sure I have seen the plans for any debt restructuring that would flow from this deal.

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