Jim Malley's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Glasgow
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity

Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England

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Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
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Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone

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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Without a doubt the short-term risks for economic prosperity in the Eurozone would increase in the face of a Greek default and exit from the Euro. However, relative to 2010, the degree of systemic risk associated with this scenario has been substantially reduced since most of this debt is no longer held by private banks. It has been “absorbed” by the ECB and other EU funds. Moreover, a number of support mechanisms have been put in place with the aim of preserving financial stability.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Fundamentals are clearly worse in Greece. Two economic factors working against the potential spread of significantly higher risk premia to other peripheral Eurozone countries are that these countries currently have relatively lower public and foreign debt burdens. For example, according to the European Commission forecasts for winter 2014, general government debt as a share of GDP was 177, 126.6, 112, and 94.3 percent for Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Spain respectively. Moreover, in 2014, the current account for all these countries was either in balance or surplus in contrast to Greece's deficit of about 2 percent of GDP despite its big depression and fall in imports. Political fundamentals are also worse in Greece.

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