John VanReenen's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics
Director of Centre for Economic Performance

Voting history

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Make sure to save each question separately

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The main point is that Brexit will cause a fall in real incomes relative to remaining in the EU. This will cause both a fall in consumption and house prices (relative to trend). The problem is not house prices per se, but the underlying structural causes. Brexit will lead to lower trade, FDI and immigration dampening growth. London and South East have high house prices because of a lack of supply (due mainly to poor planning regulations).

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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Global risks from rising debt and asset prices

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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Juncker's State of the Union Address

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Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The Euro has had benefits, especially for core countries. But for peripheral countries the effect has been adverse as exemplified by Greece where an extreme adverse shock could not be partially offset by exchange rate flexibility. In the absence of great labor mobility and larger fiscal transfers from the rest of the EU, the hit on real incomes in Greece was extremely hard and destabilizing.

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