John VanReenen's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics
Director of Centre for Economic Performance

Voting history

German current account surpluses

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Question 1: Do you agree that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?

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Question 7: Voters did not know that there was near-unanimity among economists.

Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The best work on this is by the LSE's Centre for Economic Performance which focuses on the long-term effects of Brexit. There will be substantial harm from lower trade and FDI which a more minor negative role from reduced immigration. For example on trade see http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit02.pdf or more generally http://cep.lse.ac.uk/BREXIT/. The UK will suffer most, but there will also be economic damage throughout the EU.

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
> 70%
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

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