Martin Ellison's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Global risks from rising debt and asset prices

======================================================================

Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?

======================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Whilst loose monetary policy has contributed to increased leverage and asset prices, if there are problems here then it is up to macroprudential policy to sort it out. I've never been very convinced with the "too low for too long" argument - we need to use macroprudential policy to build a stable financial architecture that doesn't explode or implode whenever the markets think monetary policy is off kilter. It's time for macropru to step up to the plate.

======================================================================

Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

======================================================================

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Juncker's State of the Union Address

====================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

====================================================================

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The European Union as a whole has been a success, especially thinking about the single market. Adopting the Euro has probably contributed a fair bit towards that, although it’s difficult to construct the counterfactual. We economists have certainly learned a lot about the problems of running a monetary union since 1999 though!

====================================================================

Question 1; Do you agree that euro membership should be compulsory for all EU member states?

====================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
In economics we typically want to make something compulsory if there is a clear market failure, for example in moral hazard or hidden information settings – think of the economic arguments around Obamacare. I don’t see what the market failure is here that would need such compulsion. Shouldn’t the benefits of a monetary union be sufficient to ensure that countries like Sweden and Poland join willingly? Another issue is timing. The Euro Area is only just emerging from majorly turbulent times, so it would make sense to take stock and consolidate before leaping into an unknown expansion that could well rattle markets.

Wages and economic recoveries

====================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the different behaviour of UK real wages relative to Eurozone wages during the Great Recession is in large part due to the UK having different labour market policies?

====================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Pages