Martin Ellison's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

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Question 2: When housing-related risk is deemed excessive from the viewpoint of financial stability, do you agree that the correct response is to deploy macro-prudential tools, leaving interest rates focused on the needs of inflation and aggregate real activity?

 
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The recent Euro crisis shows that it is enormously challenging to have monetary union without fiscal, political and banking union. The question of who provides the ultimate lender of last resort function is also still unresolved in the Euro area, let alone in a possible monetary union between Scotland and the UK.

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Oil taxes account for about 15% of total tax revenues in Scotland, which creates significant risks and uncertainties for an independent Scottish Exchequer. These will inevitably be reflected in higher risk premium and borrowing costs. The financial sector is also important in the Scottish economy, which creates further risks in periods of financial market turbulence. Experience in Switzerland tells us that sovereigns struggle to stand behind troubled financial institutions that have balance sheets many multiples the GDP of the home country - RBS alone is therefore an obvious concern.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the deflation in the euro area reflects more general global economic malaise then it is difficult to believe there would be no negative effects on the UK economy. The flexibility of an independent exchange rate for the GBP may give some hope that policy options could mitigate the effects of disinflation in the euro area, but possible balance sheet effects of non-GBP denominated debts would be worrisome.

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