Martin Ellison's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Migration and the UK economy August 2014

Question 1: Do you agree that migration to the UK can be expected to be beneficial for the average income of current UK inhabitants in the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Migrants entering the UK are typically young, healthy and wanting to work. Whilst there may be problems of displacement in specific sectors or specific geographical areas, the overall picture is of increased average income due to incoming migrants. The ‘lump of labour fallacy’ tells us that the number of jobs is not fixed so, rather than take jobs from natives, the immigration increases the overall number of jobs.

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

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Question 2: When housing-related risk is deemed excessive from the viewpoint of financial stability, do you agree that the correct response is to deploy macro-prudential tools, leaving interest rates focused on the needs of inflation and aggregate real activity?

 
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The recent Euro crisis shows that it is enormously challenging to have monetary union without fiscal, political and banking union. The question of who provides the ultimate lender of last resort function is also still unresolved in the Euro area, let alone in a possible monetary union between Scotland and the UK.

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Oil taxes account for about 15% of total tax revenues in Scotland, which creates significant risks and uncertainties for an independent Scottish Exchequer. These will inevitably be reflected in higher risk premium and borrowing costs. The financial sector is also important in the Scottish economy, which creates further risks in periods of financial market turbulence. Experience in Switzerland tells us that sovereigns struggle to stand behind troubled financial institutions that have balance sheets many multiples the GDP of the home country - RBS alone is therefore an obvious concern.

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