Martin Ellison's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The lack of risk sharing within the ECB programme is in itself unlikely to increase the Eurozone fragility. Whilst this is true mechanically, it does show a more general lack of appetite for risk sharing within the Euro Area. If countries cannot agree to share risk on a fairly uncontroversial new programme then that does not bode well for the type of risk sharing reforms that will ultimately be needed to keep the Euro Area together.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The aim of the ECB asset purchase programme is to stimulate economic activity by reducing long-term yields. Evidence from QE programmes in the US and UK suggests that this will indeed happen, primarily because assets of different duration are only imperfect substitutes and investors have a “preferred habitat”. That credit risk is not fully shared, though, is likely to push interest rates up in member countries with tight fiscal positions. However, with the bulk of the risk taken on by countries that do not have stressed fiscal positions, it is reasonable to expect only a marginal reduction in effectiveness of the programme. The change in risk sharing is an undesirable side-effect, but probably insufficient to doubt the efficacy of the medicine.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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Question 2: Do you agree that Greece would be better off defaulting right now rather than signing to the agreement under consideration?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1:  

Do you agree that, on balance, the implementation of the agreement as outlined in media reports will have a non-trivial negative effect on Greek GDP?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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