Michael Wickens's picture
Affiliation: 
Cardiff Business School & University of York
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The likelihood of negative eurozone growth is small and so poses no significant risk to the UK economy

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although activity in the eurozone is picking up, it is doing so slowly and is still a drag on UK export growth

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
History suggests that average growth could easily deviate by more than 0.25% as average growth since 1970 has been 2.7% with a 95% confidence interval of 1.8% to 3.6%. This assumes that growth fluctuates in the future as in the past and in the next years we are not free from the business cycle.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Based on time series analysis the output gap is greater than 3% but based on the aggregate production function it is about 1%

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

Second question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
In the euro zone when monetary policy is too loose - eg for a high inflation country - it is necessary to have a tighter fiscal policy than if inflation is close to the euro zone average.

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