Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?
Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?
Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?
Being a net oil importer and not being greatly dependent on exports to emerging markets, the UK is in a relatively favourable position. The main downside has been the effect of China's slowdown on iron and steeel prices which have made UK production less competitive. Though even this will benefit the UK consumer in the longer term. The fall in stockmarkets reflects a composition effect arising from the contributions to the index of oil and steel stocks, together with the effects of greater uncertainty. The latter will pass soon.
This much is obvious. The next issue is how these developments will affect individual economies. The more dependent an economy is on exporting to China - such as Germany - and the more an economy depends on primary product exports - such oil or ores - the greater the impact.
It is helpful, but it is not the best fiscal stance. Nor can it pre-commit subsequent governments to follow it. The correct policy is to tax finance permanent expenditures and to debt finance government capital expenditures and, in recession, the automatic stabilisers. This will entail running surpluses in good times in order prevent debt from increasing over time. The Charter seeks surpluses in normal times but this is not strictly necessary. In bad times - which could be frequent - surpluses are not appropriate. Like the Treasury under Gordon Brown, it still doesn't seem to understand what best fiscal practice is.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Brexit and financial market volatility
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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?
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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?
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Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects
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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?
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Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?
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Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility
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Question 2: Do you agree that the Charter for Budgetary Responsibility is helpful in underpinning the credibility of fiscal policy?
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