Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
Contrary to what many economists might like to think the referendum was not decided on economic grounds. Most Leave voters seemed to have decided largely on political, not economic, grounds. They understood that there would be an economic cost in the short run but thought that the political benefits were more important, especially in the long run. Where Leave voters took account of economic factors, they were probably voting against the effects of globalisation, especially those in the north of England. For example, Sunderland voted leave even though it was not obviously in their interest.
Question 1:Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
Economists don’t agree. This is clearly illustrated in the replies to the CFM surveys. Institutionalising the view of the majority would harm the search for the right answer and make the economics profession look ridiculous. Economists should rely on the accuracy of their analysis not on authority or leadership. The UK is not the EU Commission. I prefer an “open society” where we can learn from our mistakes through criticism and considering a plurality of views. This would also best serve the public.
Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
Like most of the predicted economic gloom this too is an exaggeration. More significantly, the point of Brexit is the long-term, largely non-economic benefits, not short-term costs.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?
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Question 3: Voters chose to leave the EU for non-economic reasons.
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 4: Voters did not believe the economic arguments put forward (for example, because they thought the arguments put forward by macroeconomists with dissenting views made more sense or because voters have little faith in economists in general).
Do you agree that this was an important reason for a majority of UK voters going against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?
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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?
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Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector
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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?
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