Morten Ravn's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics
Head of Department

Voting history

Migration and the UK economy August 2014

Question 2: Do you agree that current government policies with respect to non-EU migration (including policies on students, skilled workers, and family migration) are effective in maximizing the gains to the economy from migration while minimizing any possible negative impact to specific groups?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

Question 1: Do you agree that migration to the UK can be expected to be beneficial for the average income of current UK inhabitants in the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
If properly managed, immigration can contribute very positively to the uk economy. There is strong self selection amongst migrants and they come because of opportunities. My own sector (university) would die without migrants.

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

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Question 2: When housing-related risk is deemed excessive from the viewpoint of financial stability, do you agree that the correct response is to deploy macro-prudential tools, leaving interest rates focused on the needs of inflation and aggregate real activity?

 
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I believe that focusing monetary policy on inflation and activity and macro-prudential policy on the financial risks is the right design. However, it has to be emphasized that there are strong interactions - changes in interest rates impact on financial markets and macro-prudential policy interventions will impact on savings and investment and therefore on inflation and aggregate activity. The same is the case for fiscal interventions such as the one that I pointed to above. Thus, the policies need to be strongly coordinated and their spill-overs need to be recognized.

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Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
House prices are lower than their pre-crisis level in all regions apart from London and the outer metropolitan area. In the latter of these, house prices are now about their pre-crisis level while London prices have risen sharply. Similarly, house prices relative to earnings of first time buyers have dropped in all parts of the UK apart from London. This would seem to indicate that while intervention might be needed for London, a policy intervention that would impact on the rest of the UK is perhaps not called for and could set about unwarranted effects. One way one might design such an intervention is through the taxation of short term capital gains on housing. I also believe that any policy intervention must rely on sound economic analysis of the determinants of house prices and the impact on UK households. Such analysis should form the basis for the analysis of the likely impact of policy interventions.

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I agree approximately with Carney's stance: A monetary union is feasible under common regulation of the banking sector, and under a possibly strict set of fiscal policy rules. To the extent that this was agreed upon, a monetary union would ex-post seem feasible and beneficial.

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