Nezih Guner's picture
Affiliation: 
CEMFI
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The key challenge for the policy makers is to judge the cost of raising interest prematurely rates in an environment with growing income inequality, income uncertainty and populism. I do not think we have good models to judge this trade-off, in particular how an economic slowdown can fuel populist sentiments with potentially important long-run consequences.

Juncker's State of the Union Address

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Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I think our current perspective on the Euro is shaped by the recent crisis and in particular by the Greek experience. Would Greece get out of the crisis faster and be better off without Euro? This is a difficult counterfactual to contemplate. I believe the problems at root of the Greek (or Spanish or Italian) economic problems, such as slow growth and high unemployment, are structural and there are limits what the independent monetary policy could do. With the recent rise of populist policies, being part of a monetary union might have more benefits than harms, as countries cannot avoid facing their structural problems. Yet, as Greek experience demonstrated there is an important human toll of this approach, and a common fiscal policy, with European-wide welfare-state measures, should be an important item in the EU agenda moving forward.

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Question 1; Do you agree that euro membership should be compulsory for all EU member states?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the defining future of the European Union is the free movement of goods and factors of production (labor and capital). Insisting on euro membership for countries that are waiting to join the EU, countries that are on the periphery of Europe, will simply delay their membership and can make more harm than good. Such a policy will make sense if the EU takes bigger steps towards fiscal and political union.

Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that quantitative well-being analysis should play an important role in guiding policy makers in determining macroeconomic policies?

 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
While I think that empirical analysis, macro or micro, should make greater use of subjective well-being measures, I do not think that they can yet play a role in guiding policy. Macroeconomic policies work well when they have clear objectives, and when we understand their pros and cons clearly. I do not think insights from the quantitative well-being analysis satisfies these criteria yet.

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