Panicos Demetriades's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Leicester
Credentials: 
Professor of financial economics
Former Governor, Central Bank of Cyprus and ECB Governing Council member

Voting history

The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity

Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
We really don't have a counter-factual, we don't know what GDP and employment would have been had we had less or no austerity. Austerity reduces aggregate demand by more than it's usually assumed, as the value of the fiscal multipliers is larger than has typically been predicted, as has also been recently recognised by the IMF. This could mean that the reduction in GDP it causes is larger than the reduction in the public debt, making debt sustainability more of an issue. Also, excessive austerity can impair long run growth, by eroding the quality of a country's physical infrastructure and human capital. These are long run effects but there's plenty of research, including some of my own published in the Economic Journal in 2000, which shows that the returns to public capital are quite high, once the indict effects on the productivity of private capital are taken into account.

Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England

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Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
 
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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
They clearly need more time to check and agree the minutes, if they are to be released at the same time as the policy decision.
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Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
 
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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
On balance, more information enhances transparency, although too much information released at the same time, if conflicting, can also cause confusion.

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