Paolo Surico's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School
Credentials: 
Associate professor of economics

Voting history

Are academic economists ‘in touch’ with voters and politicians?

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Question 2: What do you think is the most likely reason that a majority of UK voters went against the near unanimous advice of the economics profession?

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Answer:
B. Arguments considered wrong
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The Leave camp painted a glorious economic future outside the EU and leveraged on national pride versus European dependence. The Remain camp choose "Project Fear" as their best card. Economists and Remain camp politicians failed to make accessible for the average voter that the INDIRECT economic benefits of being part of the EU have reached out the vast majority of the British population, including most voters outside London and belonging to older generations.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the economics profession needs an institutional change that promotes the ability to communicate more effectively with policy-makers and the public at large and to make clear when economists have a united view; and do you agree that we need to introduce leadership to help achieve this improvement through coordinated efforts?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 3: What do you think will be the overall economic consequences of Brexit for the UK?

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Answer:
Significantly negative
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
In the long-run, it would seem difficult to build a definite compelling argument for either front. But in the short-run, there seems to be mounting evidence that the economic consequences of Brexit would be significantly negative with the concrete possibility of significant capital flows and sharp drop in asset prices, including houses and exchange rate.

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
> 70%
Confidence level:
Extremely confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

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