Paolo Surico's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School
Credentials: 
Associate professor of economics

Voting history

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that the new National Living Wage is likely to lead to significantly lower employment?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
it would seem reasonable to expect many firms to adopt a wait-and-see attitude towards investment, both before the referendum and most likely in the first quarters after that if the NO camp should win. This could prove the classical transmission mechanism through which uncertainty can have significantly negative consequences for the real economy.

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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Although the economic fundamentals may have not necessarily deteriorated in the last 6 to 12 months, the recent stock market turbulence may generate sufficient uncertainty for a significant portion of households and firms so as to induce them to postpone their investment decisions. By itself, this could risk the recovery anywhere, including the U.K.

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