Paolo Surico's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School
Credentials: 
Associate professor of economics

Voting history

The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity

Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
While austerity measures may have long-run benefits (because they may encourage structural reforms), there is little empirical evidence to support the hypothesis of expansionary austerity in the short-run. But the choice of cutting government spending more than increasing taxes (if any) the coalition government has probabibly minimized the negative impact of austerity in the short-run.

Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone

=====================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?

=====================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

=====================================================================

Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?

=====================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

2014 Autumn Statement

 

Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Evidence suggests tax hikes are very contractionary whereas the evidence on the effects of changes in government spending is less conclusive.

Pages