Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
In addition to wage growth being less responsive to falling unemployment, I would add that credit growth is not particularly strong and the overall economic scenario appears to be subject to many risks.
I tend to agree with Summers that changing conditions in the labor market (de-unionization, digitalization, globalization, etc.) may have contributed to the weaker negative correlation between inflation and labor market slackness.
I share the view that bitcoins are mostly held as store of value in limited supply (similar to gold). Holders are mainly motivated by speculative activity and subject to risks of capital losses. As long as bitcoin holders are aware of what these risks are, I don't see why we need more regulation or oversight than it already in place for other stores of value. The power of monetary policy may not be affected by bitcoin diffusion, since Central Banks (or governments) are the only authorities able to provide the fiscal backing required to offer safe assets and generate lender of last resort type of policies.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
Despite the volatility and the bubble component of bitcoin valuation, it appears the number of bitcoin users and transactions are not large enough and sufficiently interconnected to represent a high risk of contagion.
Loose monetary policy is a factor contributing to higher asset values. On the other hand, in the EMU, this type of policy may be the only way to compensate for the lack of a super-national fiscal policy and the inability to issue Euro bonds, i.e., safe assets.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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Global risks from rising debt and asset prices
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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?
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