Ricardo Reis's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics and Columbia University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

A “new” UK industrial strategy ?

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Question 1: Do you agree that the UK needs a new industrial policy?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Research on this topic seems to me to be quite inconclusive, with some evidence for some positive returns (https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/cepdps/dp1113.html or https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20120103), and other evidence for neutral or negative effects (http://voxeu.org/article/surprising-prevalence-surprises-export-specialisation or http://www.nber.org/papers/w18694). If a new industrial policy is adopted, then it is probably wise to keep it modest and use recent research to design it effectively.

The Future of Central Bank Independence

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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Among all economic policymaking institutions in most advanced countries today, central banks tend to be the better prepared, the better informed, and make the more sensible decisions. Their success at keeping inflation close to targets in the past 15 years has been extraordinary. Their responses to the financial and debt crisis were, with all their flaws and shortcomings, still much better than that of almost all other policy institutions. I am worried that there has been too much discretionary policymaking, and too quick of an embrace of financial stability as a goal that can be achieved by the central bank alone. But for now, the track record of independent central banks is very good.

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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Independent, inflation-targeting, central banks have had an extraordinary track record of success in the XXIst century at fulfilling the main part of their mandate: controlling inflation. Across the OECD, inflation has been low and stable, in spite of a myriad of shocks. Moving away from this regime can only do worse, because better would be hard. (I am only not very confident in my answer because worse may mean deflation instead of high inflation.)

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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It depends, first and foremost, on political developments, which I am not competent to forecast. Yet, the rise of populism in the western world in 2016, the recent electoral success of authoritarian politicians, and the public relations campaign against experts and knowledge, all point to pressure on attacking independent technocratic institutions and reducing their power, including the central bank.

German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The structural problems are so clear and have been identified so many times by so many, that it is hard to argue that they carry a "mask". So, I have trouble moving to the next question of who is providing the mask in the first place. More importantly, the ECB's mandate is to keep inflation under control. See figure 2 here (https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/1626.html); the ECB has done a very good job keeping the price level growing at 2% per year on average, and that is the main thing it should worry about.

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