Ricardo Reis's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics and Columbia University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

======================================================================

Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?

======================================================================

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
All pieces of data, from multiple financial markets, to surveys of households and firms, seem to show a lowering of growth forecasts for the world for 2016 relative to a few months ago. Moreover, we can already identify some shocks that should have an adverse effect. At the same time, any attempts to forecast growth, especially at the global scale, are done with not much confidence given the state of our knowledge. And, most forecasts are still for a recovery in the Us economy and, at a slower rate for the EU economies, relative to the recent past.

Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility

======================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the Charter for Budgetary Responsibility is helpful in underpinning the credibility of fiscal policy?

======================================================================

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Rules allow for credible, transparent, and thus effective policy. This particular rule both takes into account the need to pay for the debt, as well as the desire to respond to the economic cycle. Moreover, by setting regimes and limits, it still allows for considerable discretion in responding to different data while acknowledging that the Chancellor cannot perfectly target a value for the deficit. Of course the rule could be improved, but it is a decisive step in the right direction for fiscal policy.

======================================================================

Question 1: The Chancellor forecasts a cyclically adjusted fiscal surplus by 2017-18 and in cash terms by 2019-20. Do you agree that this planned path of fiscal consolidation is appropriate?

======================================================================

 

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Countercyclical fiscal policy advises that with forecasts of an expansion in output, there should be fiscal consolidation. Moreover, the very large increase in public debt in response to the crisis must be paid for by moving quickly towards primary surpluses before the next adverse shock hits. Calibrating the exactly optimal rate of fiscal consolidation is difficult, but the path for the public debt seems sensible.

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

======================================================================

Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
There are many linkages between the Chinese and UK economy, including trade, direct investment, correlation of policies, and global financial cycles. While it is possible that these might offset each other, it seems more likely that they would not when it comes to UK growth. If so, the state of the economy would be different, so policy variables would likely have to differ as well.

======================================================================

Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

======================================================================

 

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Economic science is very far from being able to predict growth, especially over the medium term, with any confidence. Moreover, depending on how much of China's recent growth is due to Solow-type convergence, versus miracles (http://www.nber.org/papers/w11528) one could expect past growth to persist or not.

Pages