Richard Portes's picture
Affiliation: 
London Business School and CEPR

Voting history

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects

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Question 2:

Do you agree that if the Chinese slowdown turns out to be persistent, it will have a significant impact on UK growth (say, in the order of a few tenths of a percentage point) and/or it will justify a material change in monetary policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of a return to ‘normal’ interest rates) and fiscal policy (for example, in terms of the timing and speed of fiscal contraction).

Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The main impact is on Chinese imports of raw materials and semifinished goods. That can't be a significant proportion of our exports to China. The effects on us of the negative impact on emerging market exporters to China must also be second-order. And our exports will benefit from the Chinese switch towards consumption - in particular, foreign travel and educating Chinese students abroad, provided we have a more sensible visa policy. That may require a change of Home Secretary. Chinese financial liberalisation and the development of their financial sector (part of the structural switch) will also probably be positive for the UK.

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the Chinese economy is likely (say more than 50% probability) to maintain in the medium term (say, for at least ten years) a rate of annual growth exceeding 6%.

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The deceleration is mainly the consequence of the intentional switch from industry to services and from investment to consumption. It will not be dramatic - no 'crash', just a normal reversion to rapid but not extraordinary growth rates, say 5%. And since we don't measure services output as reliably as we do industrial production, one can't be terribly confident of what the reported slowdown will mean.

ECB's quantitative easing

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Question 2:

Do you agree that the structure of the ECB's QE programme makes the Eurozone more fragile and increases the risk of one country leaving the euro?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1:

Do you agree that the design of the ECB's QE programme reduces its effectiveness? 

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Not at this stage. That might come in a third programme, but only if Greece has demonstrated with concrete measures that it is willing to do deep reforms.

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