Sushil Wadhwani's picture
Affiliation: 
Wadhwani Asset Management
Credentials: 
Chief executive officer of Wadhwani Asset Management

Voting history

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Once again, the uncertainty relating to Brexit not only affects the fx market, but is also likely to spill over into the UK bond market. Moreover, corporate investment and hiring decisions are likely to be delayed as firms willf ind it to be rational to adopt a "wait and see" attitude.If we stay in, we will likely see a rebound in corproate spending after the referendum. If we choose to exit, the continuing uncertainty could easily precipitate a fully-fledged recession.

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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The uncertainty engendered by the Brexit referendum will continue to undermine inflows into the UK from foreign investors as they would prefer to "wait and see". We have a significant current account deficit and the drying up of medium-term portfolio inflows requires the pound to fall to levels that seem attractive to shorter-term, speculative investors.We are currently witnessing that adjustment process. O)nce that initial adjustment is complete, the;pound is likely to fluctuate with perceptions regarding as to which side will win. Given that opinion polls are relatively unreliable and volatile, this is likely to spill over into the foreign exchnage market. Of course, once the referendum result is known, a further step adjustment will be necessary in the fx market.

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Once again, i disagree because i would expect the stimulative impact of lower oil prices to at least partially offset the impact of a modestly weaker global economy on the UK. However, i am not confident about this conclusion because of the downside risks to my modal projection coming from the possibility of a shock caused by significant capital outflows from China and/or further equity market weakness.

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Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
On the evidence so far, the deterioration in global growth prospects is relatively modest,which is why i disgareed with the statement in the question. However, there are significant downside risks. If equity markets were to fall more,we might see a self-feeding downward spiral. Moreover, the opacity of Chinese economic prospects is worrisome and there are undeniable downside risks associated with a process of hard-to-control capital outflows.

Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

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Question 3: Do you agree that implementation of the agreement will lead to an expected decrease in Greek debt repayments?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
yes-but this is primarily because i expect that signing the agreement allows the necessary discussions on future debt relief to occur.

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